Glacier Travel- Probing Techniques

Risk Management

Risk is a vital component of our trip to the Stikine Icefield, and as a result we are doing our best to ensure that all involved are properly educated in regards to the best Risk Management practices possible. Our team understands that in order to fulfill our desire to "challenge and educate ourselves and others about glacial mountaineering" we will be exposing ourselves to a number of hazards and their consequent risks.

However, before I dive into the equations that make risk management less daunting, I do want to note that none of it is helpful if we do not remember, above all else, to stay calm and take a deep breath when encountering an incident. Clear thinking allows us to distinguish between perceived risk (what we think is happening), from actual risk (what is actually happening). Being able to adequately and properly assess the situation is the first step to managing the risk. Projecting this calmness to others, will strengthen the ability of the group to work together.

With that being said, there have been two risk management formulas developed, that have proved remarkably helpful to groups in the past. These formulas, if used whilst calm and collected, will allow proper assessment of the situation, and in turn a better outcome.

The first formula is known as the Dynamics of Accidents Theory. This theory claims that there are two distinct (albeit broad) types of hazards: objective and subjective hazards. 

Objective Hazards are environmental and include weather, falling rocks, lack of sunlight, etc. 

Subjective Hazards, on the other hand, are human factors and include either unsafe acts (inadequate instruction, inadequate supervision, etc). To determine the likelihood of an accident, the Dynamics of Accidents Theory (Hale, 1984) tells us to add the two categories together. In other words, Objective Hazards + Subjective Hazards = Accident Potential. The more the two categories overlap, the greater the likelihood of an accident. 

As a group, we may find ourselves in bad weather at one point in the trip. Say the sun is going down, and white out conditions are headed our way. Both the lack of sunlight and the white out conditions would constitute objective hazards. Next, we would determine our subjective hazards. Interestingly, studies have shown that, as a group of all women, we are less likely to participate in unsafe acts and therefore have lower subjective hazards than other groups might have. Provided, of course, that we do not give into other errors in judgement or misperception, we should be able to keep our subjective hazards very low. On the other hand, our objective hazards are significant. 

It is from here, that we can adequately assess risk using another common formula. Risk = Likelihood of an event times the consequences of that event. In this equation, likelihood refers to the probability that something will happen, and can be determined using the Dynamics of Accidents Theory. Consequence, refers to the severity of outcome. If someone falls will they scrape a knee, twist their ankle, or crash into a rock? Therefore, the equation can also be written: risk = likelihood x severity. 

Going back to our previous example, we have already assessed the likelihood of an accident potential as quite high due to our objective hazards. We will now want to assess the severity. What could happen if we decided to continue a traverse across the glacier without much visibility? Of course, we would not be aware of crevasses, boulders, etc. Either of these factors could be deadly, so our severity is quite high. Multiply this by our high likelihood of an accident, and you soon find that traveling in white out conditions is incredibly risky.

With this in mind, while we prepare for our trip, we want to encourage other adventurers to also become knowledgeable about the environment and terrain they may encounter before taking a trip - whether across an icefield, to a mountain peak or beyond. Knowing the objective and subjective hazards you may encounter, as well as the severity of the consequences of those hazards can save a life. Above all else, if you do find yourself in a difficult situation, don't forget to take a deep breath.

- Beth.